Draw the region like in Lecture 16, we have .
Draw a 3-d region, we have .
Consider the following polytope in :Then . (We can use multi-dimensional integration & induction to show it.) So .
Define as the event of . Naturally . Then
Thus
: observed data. : unknown parameter(s). All continuous random variables. Law of Total Probability: Bayes Rule for Continuous RV:
If or is discrete, use p.m.f instead of p.d.f.
Example (Binomial)
. , . Then
ThenIf , then
For dimensions, , . .
Example (Gaussian)
.
unknown, known. . Random variable .
Conjugate prior .
where
(Precision = prior precision + data precision)
as .
Precisions are additive.
Precision gets large as sample size gets large.
For a finite , if , then and .
known, unknown.
Put a prior on precision . ThenConjugate prior :. Then . .
Both unknown. where
2 Model Selection
Double Exponential/Laplace
..
. Consider Model 0 vs. Model 1. Prior odds: . , p.d.f. . , p.d.f. . Bayes Factor: . Posterior odds: .